Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics.

Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.

Investigators
Abbreviation
Science
Publication Date
2009-07-17
Volume
325
Issue
5938
Page Numbers
290-4
Pubmed ID
19608910
Medium
Print
Full Title
Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics.
Authors
Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Steiner C, Panozzo CA, Alonso WJ, Miller MA, Glass RI, Glasser JW, Parashar UD, Grenfell BT